photo credit: A. www.viajar24h.comThe number one issue on the plate for nearly everyone is the economic meltdown that occurred in 2008 and is carrying through to 2009. Although we here bad news in the media, most don’t describe the really ugly things occurring.
The Banks
2008 was a bad year for banks. Given what you hear on the news, most of us would think things were calming down. They are not. If anything, they are worse. For instance, are you area that regional banks are failing at a rate of more than one a week? How about the fact the federal government cranked $165 billion dollars into the 8 biggest American banks, but they still lost $418 billion in value? The latest estimates place the total capitalization of all banks in the US at 1.8 trillion dollars. That’s not bad until you realize the latest estimate of bad debt in the industry is 3.6 trillion dollars.
The facts spell out a fairly predictable path for banks in the coming months. The entire system appears to be insolvent. The federal government is the only entity with any money. It can’t let the banking system fail. The obvious choice is to nationalize the banks, close those that can’t be saved, recapitalize those that can and then launch the banks again as private entities traded on the stock markets. Taxpayers will take a bath, but there appears to be no other choice at this point.
Trade Protection Wars
The United States is the great consumer nation. By consuming like mad, we drive the world economy. Well, there is one problem. We are no longer consuming. Americans are worried and holding on to every penny they have. The cut back in spending is killing companies in the United States and causing massive job losses. The same is occurring overseas for China and other countries that import to the United States.
When a cycle like this starts occurring – reduced spending, job losses, more spending reductions – one thing always happens – protectionism. “We need jobs! Why should we be shipping jobs to India? China?” If you thought the immigration debate got people riled up, wait till this movement gets moving. If politicians fall in line with this way of thinking, then we can expect trade wars to break out.
The Good News
Unfortunately, there is a dearth of good news at the moment. Still, there are some hints that things are beginning to bottom out. Housing sales were up in December 2008. Financial gurus were surprised by this, but should not be. It was inevitable. The increase in sales signified a collective view that the bottom of the market has either been hit or is getting very close. How do we know this? Most of the buyers are investors. They are in the business of making money on property. When they start moving into the market, it is a signal that demand is going to increase. Is it a sign of a massive turn around? No, but it is a sign things may be stabilizing.
As predicted by many, 2009 is shaping up to be a rough year. If you are in financial straights or worried, it is a time to live frugally. 2010 should see a rebound, so getting there in as good a shape as possible should be your goal.
Stephen Teak writes about economic news for FactoringCompanyInformation.com – find a factoring company that will solve your small business cash flow problems with small business factoring.
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